China Could Operate 50 H-20 Bombers By 2035

by Kris Osborn, Warrior

China could operate at least 50 H-20 bombers by 2035 capable of conventional, nuclear and hypersonic attack across a wide combat formation due to its ability to mass produce aircraft such as bombers. Apart from the key question of performance parameters and the relative extent to which the H-20 may or may not rival the U.S. Air Force B-21, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s H-20 could create a significant “mass” threat problem. 

One of the Pentagon’s former top weapons researchers and threat assessment experts published findings that “there is little reason China could not have 50-or more H-20 bombers by 2035.”  The research, published in a text called “China/Russia Strategic/Theater Nuclear Weapons 2044 Forecast and Potential US Responses,” cites that China built as many as 20-to-30 H-6 bombers per year and is currently positioned to meet or exceed this production capacity with its H-20. 

“We actually built approximately 25 B-1s a year. So given China's manufacturing capabilities, I see no reason why they shouldn't have at least 50 H-20s by 2035 and the associated weapons,” research author James Howe, President of Strategic Concepts and Analysis and former Director, Threats, Technologies and Future Requirements for Boeing Missile Defense Division, told Warrior in an interview earlier this year. Mr. Howe has performed numerous studies for OSD, “The H-20 is  supposed to be able to carry 16 weapons. By 2035, there's no reason why they couldn't have at least 50 of those because its IOC is supposed to be sometime in the next few years.”

Very little is known about the H-20, and there have been few publicly available renderings, and while the platform appears quite stealthy to the observer's eye, top Pentagon weapons experts are concerned about the People’s Liberation Army Air Force production capacity and anticipated fleet size, as it pertains to the H-20. 

The Pentagon’s annual military report on China has consistently cited an H-20 threat, stating as far back as 2018 that the H-20’s 8,500km range armed with 2,000 km range CJ-20 ALCMs can “expand long-range offensive bomber capability beyond the second island chain,” placing areas such as Guam, Hawaii and the US at risk. 

Citing previous production capacity Chinese benchmarks, Howe projected that indeed China’s well-known civil-military fusion would be positioned to produce large numbers of H-20s at a concerning pace. 

"China built 20-30 H-6 bombers/year and plans to build 150 C-919 passenger planes/year. With an expected 2025 H-20 first flight there is little reason China could not have 50 or more H-20 bombers by 2035," Howe added. "The H-20 reportedly has a 10-to-40-ton payload. For comparison purposes, the B-2 reportedly has a 20-ton (40,000 lb.) payload."

B-21 Production

Howe’s estimate of more than 50 H-20s by 2035 could be the low end of potential fleet-size projection, given his comment that China built 20-to-30 H-6 bombers per year. Should the pace of H-20 construction be even half or one third of this, then China could have well over 100 H-20s by 2035.  This is likely why most public reports say that the Air Force/Pentagon/Northrop alliance may build as many as 7 to 10 B-21s per year, as it could keep the US Air Force on-pace with China’s soon-to-be-growing fleet of H-20 bombers. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University