Enough Heavy Armor? Ukraine Could “Pull-off” Massive Counter-Offensive

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington DC) While Ukraine’s much-discussed spring offensive didn’t kick off when expected, a number of news outlets around the globe are now reporting the beginning of a massive, 60-mile-wide counter offensive described as an effort to probe, disable, and push back Russian defenses and ultimately push the ongoing stalemate into Ukraine’s favor.

The fervor and tenacity of Ukrainian fighters, coupled with tactical proficiency has caused far more problems for the Russian military than may have been anticipated.

The reasons for this have unfolded for months and captured global imagination as Ukrainian forces defied a massive, much larger aggressor.

Armor Offensive

The prospects for success for a major Ukrainian offensive seem challenged and complicated, however, because Ukraine may not yet have enough heavy armor. Bradley fighting vehicles have arrived along with British Challenger tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, yet it seems unclear if the Ukrainians can mass a mechanized force large enough to truly reclaim and “hold” large swaths of territory.

It has been seen that a well-executed “move to contact” with Russian defenses can break through a perimeter or achieve initial success gaining “ground,” yet an ability to occupy reclaimed territory would likely need a larger armor presence coupled with a secure supply chain, logistical apparatus, and forward force transport systems.

Despite the fact that Ukraine’s military has clearly proven itself to be tactically adept, motivated, and armed with weapons sufficient to hold off and defeat ongoing Russian advances, Russia still has a numerical advantage in the sheer number of soldiers and equipment.

Russia’s tank force has been decimated and the Russian military was plagued with supply problems, morale deficiencies, and tactical ineptitude during the opening months of the invasion.