By SOFREP
On April 13, 2024, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israeli targets. The attack was in response to an Israeli assassination of high-value Iranian individuals by means of an air strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
Damage on the ground was minimal. Although estimates vary, the broad consensus is that the vast majority of the Iranian munitions were delivered by drones. Approximately 295 drones and 5 ballistic missiles. The drones took hours to reach their targets, and were tracked by air defense.
In the event, damage on the ground was minimal. Israel boasted that its missiles, and those of its US, UK and other allies shot down “99%” of the attacking vehicles. Mass media touted the engagement as a great victory, and a showcase for Israel’s air defense. In fact, they shot down all the drones and some of the ballistic missiles.
Deeper analysis reveals a more subtle picture.
First, US and Arabian diplomacy worked overtime to convince Iran to not launch an all-out attack so as to not inflame the situation in the Middle East. Iran agreed to calibrate its attack to demonstrate to Israel that Iran could hurt Israel if it wanted to. In that respect, the attack proceeded exactly as expected. None of the drones were expected to reach their targets. A number of the handful of ballistic missiles did reach their targets, but were not intended to produce significant damage. This was not made public in mass media reporting.
Second, the air defense missiles expended cost Israel and its allies tens of millions of dollars. Because the hit probability of an air defense missile is less than 1.0 (in most cases, the theoretical hit probability is in the region of 0.8 and the empirical hit probability is less than 0.5), at least two and sometimes three air defense missiles are fired for each incoming target. Each drone costs a few thousand dollars and each air defense missile costs a million or two. That was an expensive attack to repel.
Third, and this is the subject of this post, the drones were meant to be shot down. While mass media and Israel’s public utterances touted the effectiveness of Israel’s and the coalition’s air defense, no mention was made of the subtle truth. By sacrificing the drones, the Iranians and the Russians were able to gather significant electronic warfare intelligence. They were able to map all of Israel’s and its allies’ radar installations and assess their technology.
This essay first appeared in SOFREP
