By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Ukrainian forces are “breaking through” with their counteroffensive and have been “attack through the main set of Russian defensive preparations, according to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley.
This could indeed be a massive development, as the Institute for the Study of War is now explaining that advancing Ukrainian forces are now encountering new “layers” of Russian defenses and encountering “logistics units.” Hitting logistics units suggests that indeed attacking Ukrainian forces are hitting second-layer supporting Russian forces operating as critical parts of the supply chain to bring weapons, food, medical supplies and ammunition forward. Crippling, weakening or destroying these fortifications could prove extremely critical for any sustained Ukrainian victory.
“Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and numerous sources report that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggest may be the most challenging of prepared Russian defensive positions,” ISW writes in its latest Ukraine Counteroffensive analysis.
Hitting deeper in logistics units and fortifications is a massive development, yet these are gains which need to be sustained, meaning re-claimed ground needs to be “held” and “maintained.” This requires force concentrations, heavier mechanized forces and logistics support. It is not surprising that, in recent months, the Pentagon has been sending more tactical trucks and other logistical support platforms and technology, as these are things which enable captured territory to be fortified and maintained. This will continue to be key for Ukrainians, who are now reportedly making very serious progress.
Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.5km southward northeast of Novoprokopivka, ISW explains.
“Ukrainian forces now appear within striking distance of the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions, which may be weaker than the previous set of Russian defenses, but still pose a significant challenge,” ISW says.
How is Ukraine doing this? There are certainly a variety of factors worthy of in depth discussion, as Ukrainian war progress likely has several causes and dimensions, to include intangibles such as intense devotion, unwavering tenacity and sustained resolve in the face of war. We know that longer range rockets such as Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and precision artillery have exacted a toll on Russian vehicles, troop concentrations and advancing forces. Given the absence of air superiority, and therefore operating with an inability to destroy Russian cruise missile launchers from the air, long-range ground rockets have been extremely impactful. We also know that dismounted, yet highly intense hit-and-run types of anti-armor ambush attacks continue to “decimate” Russian tanks, armored vehicles and mechanized forces. Open course war assessment sites such as Oryx have photographed and documented thousands of Russian T-72 and T-90 tank losses.
There are also likely lesser known factors such as the consistent presence of ISR, as overhead small, low-altitude drones and NATO-and-commercially available satellite surveillance likely continues to inform Ukrainian commanders of weaker spots in Russian defenses lines and high-value target areas for Ukrainian forces to attack with armored assault and precision weapons. The arrival of large amounts of small, hand-held, organically-attached drones traveling with and supporting advancing ground units have likely been quite decisive, given that the lack of air superiority, caused by advanced, highly capable Russian air-defenses, can make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to use medium-altitude drones or vulnerable surveillance aircraft.
Arrival of Heavy Armor
The arrival of Bradleys, tanks and more heavily armored vehicles is likely also a significant factor, as it might enable Ukrainian forces to “penetrate” Russian defenses and advance, the recent and potentially surprising element of this is that Ukrainian forces may now be able to “hold” onto recaptured territory. This has likely been quite difficult for Ukrainians, as a certain amount of armor will likely enable Ukraine to break through Russian defenses, yet it will require a greater amount of armor in order to fortify, hold and establish newly reclaimed ground. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Ukraine’s ability to hold new territory corresponds with the arrival of more heavy armor.
The latest Pentagon drawdown was, as expected, very heavy on air defenses, artillery and drones … yet the most significant and impactful dimension to this new support will likely be the new commitments of heavy armor. Air defenses, drones and artillery are of course desperately needed by Ukrainian forces, and much of this is included in the Pentagon’s package, yet the new support effort is also very heavy on “heavy armor.” It includes more than 70 Abrams and T-72 tanks along with as many as 186 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 189 Strykers. The support effort also more than doubles the amount of Strykers in Ukraine from 90 up to nearly 300. This is quite significant because, as wheeled vehicles, Strykers can move infantry forward much faster than tracked vehicles and reinforce advancing infantry. Strykers can travel as fast as 60mph and carry infantry in large numbers to support advancing Ukrainian fighters. These kinds of heavy armor fortifications are likely one key reason for Ukraine’s progress.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
