By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Iranian capital of Tehran is less than 2,000 miles from Jerusalem, a perhaps disturbing if lesser recognized threat circumstance confronting Israel. This means that many of Iran’s large arsenal of ballistic missiles are capable of firing from Western Iran directly into Israeli communities. Such an attack would undoubtedly constitute a major escalation and prompt a wider war, yet Israeli and Israeli Defense Forces leaders are likely considering this threat quite seriously, particularly when it comes to the question of volume. A salvo of Iranian fired ballistic missiles and cruise missiles would prove very difficult for advanced Iron Dome and Patriot defenses to destroy.
The Patriot and Iron Dome systems are extremely precise and engineered with cutting edge technology, and a collection of these networked interceptor missile defense systems might succeed in “seeing,” “tracking,” and “destroying” incoming Iranian missiles. Even advanced Patriot batteries and Iron Dome, however, would not likely be able to stop a massive salvo of large numbers of incoming missiles. This is likely why the IDF would ensure its F-35Adir is ready to destroy Iranian missile launchers right at or before the beginning of hostilities.
One Iranian Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile likely to generate concern is the Khorramshahr. The Khorramshahr missile, according to Iran Watch, “is derived from the North Korean Musudan (BM-25) missile, itself a variant of the Soviet SS-N-6, which is a single-stage, liquid-fueled, submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of 2,400 to 3,000 km and the ability to carry a nuclear warhead.”
The Iran Watch essay on the weapon was clear that there are still many unknowns related to the Khorramshahr but did cite media speculation about a new multi-warhead “compound” warhead on the missile able to disperse a group of 100kg explosives. However, despite this ominous sounding possibility of cluster explosives, Iran Watch estimates the Khorramshahr as an weapon which is not particularly precise, despite Iranian claims that the missile can hit within one meter of its intended target.
“Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Baqeri claimed at that time that the missile impacted within a meter of its target during testing. Independent estimates, however, have put the Khorramshahr’s accuracy at up to a 1.5 km CEP and posited that the new warhead is a cluster munition,” Iran Watch writes.
There are also questions surrounding the exact range of the Khorramshahr, which Iran claims can reach 2,000km. However, the Khorramshahr is based upon the North Korean Musudan missile which is estimated to travel between 2,500 to 4,000km.
This means that, regardless of its potential measure of precision, the Khorramshahr appears entirely capable of holding civilian areas within Israel at great risk of ballistic missile attack from Iran. A ballistic missile targeting urban or civilian areas would not need to be precise to exact a lethal, devastating and terrorizing impact upon Israeli communities. This is precisely why the IDF deploys its Iron Dome missile defenses along with US-made Patriot interceptor missiles. It may not be clear which variant of the Patriot missile is now operating in Iran, however, cutting edge testing of new Patriot variants are now showing that Patriots upgraded with software are now capable of tracking and destroying maneuvering cruise missiles.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
