By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
(Washington, D.C.) The shooting down of a stealthy Russian S-70 Okhotnik drone in the Ukraine war may generate a windfall of intelligence data for Ukraine and the West, particularly because the electronics and computing may offer some indication as to how advanced Russia is in the realm of AI-enabled target data processing, digital networking and manned-unmanned teaming. In recent years, Russia appears to be attempting to replicate US success in the realm of “loyal wingman” capability wherein drones can be operated from the cockpit of a manned fighter. The US Air Force has made great progress connecting F-22s and F-35s with drones in the air, and multiple reports now suggest the shot down Russian stealthy attack drone was operating in coordination with a 5th-generation Russian Su-57 stealth fighter. This would make sense given that the Russian media has for years been writing about connecting its Okhotnik drone with its Su-57. Can Russia compete with the US in the realm of manned-unmanned teaming? Evidence surrounding the shootdown seems to suggest the Okhotnik was operating in coordination with the Su-57, and potentially shot down deliberately or through friendly fire.
“The exact circumstances that led to the downing of the Okhotnik remain unclear. Video footage from the incident, shared on both pro-Kyiv and pro-Moscow social media channels, shows a Su-57 fighter jet shooting down the drone using what appears to be an R-74M2 air-to-air missile,” an Oct 7 essay in the Economic Times states.
Russia copying US “Loyal Wingman” manned-unmanned teaming?
Russia’s TASS news agency has in recent years written several stories about how their military is essentially “copying” the successful US Air Force networking of the F-35, F-22 and Valkyrie drone with manned-unmanned teaming between the Okhotnik and Russia’s 5th-generation Su-57. This raises key questions about the extent to which Russia can accomplish a successful ability to replicate the US Air Force’s “loyal wingman” concept and operate a manned fighter jet in close coordination with an unmanned, stealthy drone.
The US Air Force has in recent years made breakthrough progress advancing its “loyal wingman” manned-unmanned teaming concept wherein 5th-generation manned aircraft are able to network with one another in flight and exchange critical data in real time. In development in terms of concept and technological exploration for more than a decade, the vision and its corresponding Concept of Operation have come to operational life in recent years. Not long ago, the US Air Force Research laboratory demonstrated that its Valkyrie drone could exchange in-flight data with an F-35.
Okhotnik Drone
Regardless of its specific level of technological sophistication in the realm of manned-unmanned teaming, the Okhotnik is well-understood as an extremely dangerous platform. The platform is not only stealthy but reported to be an armed strike drone as well, according to numerous reports including one from as far back as 2018 in Russia Beyond quoting Russian experts discussing the drone.
“The Okhotnik’s arsenal includes air-to-surface missiles and an array of bombs (glide and operator-controlled) that will not be suspended from the wings, but hidden inside the body to reduce visibility on enemy radar,” Professor Vadim Kozyulin of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences told Russia Beyond.
As discussed in the Russia Beyond essay, the Okhotnik appears to present significant threats as it is reported to operate with an internal weapons bay, stealth coatings and a B-2-esque blended wing-body horizontal, stealthy configuration. The ability to keep weapons inside the aircraft without hanging them underneath on pylons, means the drone can attack while operating in stealth mode.
There may also be some small “hard points” on the drone to enable a beast-mode kind of heavier attack. The absence of protruding structures, shapes and sharp angles from underneath weapons means ground based air-defense radar will have much less to “bounce” its signal or “ping” off of to generate a rendering to ground sensors.
Real questions about the drone also may pertain to the level of technological sophistication when it comes to its additional stealth characteristics, meaning what kind of thermal management or heat-reduction does the drone have? How effective are the stealth coatings? Perhaps most of all, is there an internally buried engine which may ensure the air temperature surrounding the drone is roughly equivalent to the drone itself to essentially “blind” thermal sensors. How is the exhaust managed?
An equally pressing question introduced by the Russia Beyond essay is the development of AI-capabilities for the drone, something which would of course exponentially increase its ability to process sensor data, targeting information and the ability to network with both other unmanned and manned systems.
This reduces latency, streamlines attack possibilities and potentially networks attack detail across much broader and more threatening formations. The operational functionality of the integrated AI-data analysis and the extent to which manned-unmanned teaming networks are “hardened” are also pressing questions when it comes to the extent of the threat posed by the Russian drone.
However, Russia has not yet produced many Su-57s and there may be some question as to whether it has the industrial capacity to build impactful numbers of the new drone. While of course even a small number would likely present a credible threat, Russia may not have an ability to “scale” the existence of this drone in a rapid fashion. Finally, while the US military is known to operate stealthy drones such as the Sentinel, there is no clear indication that the US operates an “armed” stealthy drone, however the emergence of one in the near future would surprise noone.
Russia’s large Okhotnik stealthy drone presents a threat to NATO and the West
The US military’s Sentinel RQ-170 has become famous as a stealthy surveillance drone capable of conducting ISR missions in some of the most dangerous and contested areas, yet the platform does not appear to be armed.
US Stealthy Attack Drone? UCLASS History
It is not clear or known if the US is far along with its own stealthy attack drone, although unarmed stealth drones such as the RQ-170 exist. Years ago, there was a program called UCLASS, which was a Navy carrier-launched drone, which was explored as an armed attack drone, refueler or surveillance asset. The program was preceded by a breakthrough and interesting innovation called the X-47B demonstrator, a first of its kind stealthy carrier-launched drone. The UCLASS program wound up hitting what might be called a mini-collision in terms purpose and mission, yet wound up arguably evolving into an inspiring the Navy’s first-of-its-kind MQ-25 Stingray carrier launched refueler drone
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
