Would a “No-Fly” Zone Create Massive World War III with Russia?

By Kris Osborn – President & Editor-In-Chief, Warrior Maven

Would implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine involve a “major escalation” and most likely spark a massive, dangerous, great power war with potentially unparalleled danger to the US and the world?

No Fly Zone

As the President of Ukraine continues to call for a no-fly zone, US military commanders and leaders experienced with what that would involve are likely hesitant for a number of critical reasons, given their responsibility to protect American lives. A no-fly zone, Air War Commanders explain, is an unmistakable act of war.

“Many folks assume that somehow a no fly zone is some sort of magical way to disperse an enemy without bloodshed. Nothing could be further from reality. In fact, a no fly zone is not a military half measure. Its full fledged combat, designed to deprive an enemy of its airpower. And it involves direct and sustained warfighting. I think it is important to get across it is not a silver bullet,” Retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Deptula also commanded the air wars in Desert Storm as well as Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.

Essentially, any no fly zone effort would not merely require the ability to clear the skies of enemy aircraft and maintain air patrols, but would instead require specific precision attacks on enemy air defenses. In the case of Ukraine, this would mean attacking and destroying large numbers of Russian S-400 mobile air defense systems and other weapons posing risks to aircraft. 

These risks are significant, given what is known about S-400 modernization. Modern or upgraded S-400 SAMS are capable of operating on multiple radar frequency, networking otherwise disparate “nodes” together with digital processors and of course greatly extending range of attack. Russian media reports their advanced S-400 and S-500 air defenses can even track and destroy stealth aircraft. 

This claim has not been verified and is believed by many US Air Commanders to simply be inaccurate in many ways, however it is indeed considered likely that S-400s would at least be able to track and potentially destroy US F-15s, F/A-18s and other non-stealthy 4th Generation air assets.

Deptula has commanded no-fly zone operations before.